Broken Arrow, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

897
FXUS64 KTSA 152354
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
654 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

  - Showers and thunderstorms chances expected for southeast OK /
    northwest AR through the early evening.

  - An unsettled weather pattern continues through the weekend and
    into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are expected at
    times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A shortwave trough axis is traversing the area today, with an
associated surface front currently oriented SW-NE across southeast
OK and into central AR. Showers and thunderstorms are forming along
and just behind this front. A few storms have become marginally
severe with hail up to 1". In general, this will continue for a
couple of hours before diminishing. Temperatures will climb a few
more degrees this afternoon for areas that have seen extensive
clouds. Overnight tonight, lows will fall into the upper 50s to low
60s in the north, and mid to upper 60s in the south. The somewhat
drier air, especially in northeast OK, will allow for more efficient
radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Low level winds will reverse to southerly Saturday morning with
moisture quickly moving northwards again. However, another boundary
will quickly begin sweeping it back to the east by mid morning. A
few storms may develop along or ahead of this boundary in northwest
AR. Any storms that do form may become severe with plenty of
instability, moisture, and shear present. However, CAMs have not
been too excited for our area given robust mid level capping and
the fact that the initiating feature isn`t all that strong. This
should keep the best severe probabilities east, but confidence
isn`t particularly high either, and it wouldn`t be surprising if
storms did form a bit further west. CAMs then show another round
of storms along the boundary in the late afternoon or evening, but
these will probably be either right on the edge of the area or
south/east. It`ll be another warm day, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.

One more boundary moves through Saturday morning, after which deep
moisture will spread over the entire area. There is no point in
getting too specific on details later Saturday through Tuesday as
confidence is low on when exact features will move through, and
details will be dependent on what happens the day before. With
that said, the general pattern will be one of good ascent due to a
favorable jet and incoming upper level low. We will have
sustained low level warm and moist advection. Therefore, several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely. Given the time of
year and general favorable thermodynamics, severe thunderstorms
are expected at times, with potentially all hazards. Stay tuned,
as things may get pretty busy.

By Tuesday the main storm system will eject across the area,
with cooler and drier air moving in behind it. High temperatures
will drop and humidity will diminish for a few days. Low
temperatures may even return to the 40s for the cool spots by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Light rain showers continue to spread northeastward across
southeast OK and northwest AR early this evening. Kept VCSH at MLC
and FSM through the next hour or so. Latest hi-res model guidance
suggests another burst of showers and thunderstorms developing
across far southeast OK and western AR by or around 03z/10PM. Did
include a PROB30 group for the chance of -TSRA for a few hours at
FSM to reflect this, though confidence of this occurring is low-
medium at this time. There could be some MVFR cigs that develop
with this activity, if these showers/storms verify. Otherwise,
VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the overnight
period. Confidence has increased slightly for MVFR ceilings
developing by mid-late morning Friday. Southeast OK into
northwest AR would have the greatest potential, with MVFR
ceilings possibly lingering into early-mid afternoon at the AR TAF
sites. VFR should prevail by late afternoon or early evening
Friday. Lastly, winds will veer out of the west, increase, and
may become gusty Friday morning through the afternoon as another
cold front moves through the area.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  88  57  84 /   0  10   0  20
FSM   67  89  62  88 /  20  30  10  20
MLC   64  87  61  88 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   54  86  52  81 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   61  84  57  85 /  10  30   0  20
BYV   61  84  58  84 /  20  30   0  20
MKO   60  86  58  85 /   0  20   0  20
MIO   58  84  54  81 /   0  20   0  10
F10   60  87  59  86 /   0  10   0  20
HHW   69  88  64  87 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67